Never Admit You’re Wrong

July 26th, 2010
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This is a post with a bit of game theory.

1) I think everyone lies a little, or at least hedges in their own favor. My common example of this is the weight on your driver’s license. If you are the kind of person who cares about weight, you probably shade your weight down by about five pounds. If you care about height, maybe you add an inch or two. It’s a silly thing to do, but people do it.

2) Most people are aware of (1), and automatically adjust for it. If I am trying to determine someone’s true weight by looking at their driver’s license, I usually add five pounds.

3) Clearly, this system is disadvantageous to the “honest” person. I will overestimate his/her weight.

4) The result, typically, is devolution to the lowest common denominator. Everyone fudges, because if they FAIL to fudge, they will “lose” in the competitive market place.

Now, consider this in terms of arguments. Let us suppose that I enter an argument where I am fairly sure I’m right, but also somewhat uncertain.
If I overplay my own certainty, I am more frequently going to “win” the argument. Therefore, it is a common tactic to overplay certainty. Therefore, it is a common tactic of the other “player” in the argument to estimate the true certainty of his opponent as less than the presented certainty.

If, on the other hand, I admit my uncertainty, the other person will usually underestimate my certainty. They do this because the this underestimate is usually gives the closest answer to reality. Most people fudge.

before you do something stupid…

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